Ⅰ 關於「匯率」的論文（字數3000）
基於人民幣升值的出口企業匯率風險分析
[摘 要] 中國加入WTO六年多以來，對外貿易發展迅速，越來越多的企業走向國際市場。自2005年7月的匯率改革開始，人民幣匯率仍然一路走高，已經進入「6」時代，出口企業將面臨更大匯率風險。本文就三個層次分析了出口企業面臨的匯率風險，並就如何利用金融衍生工具提出了出口企業面對匯率風險所應採取的措施。
[關鍵詞] 人民幣升值 出口企業 匯率風險 金融衍生工具
一、引言
中國加入WTO後，貿易大國的地位不斷提升。2008年7月4日，人民幣對美元匯率中間價為6.8529，一舉創出年內第五十一個新高。至此，人民幣對美元匯率中間價較2007年底累計升值近6.2%。目前，中國出口企業亦正以積極方式應對匯率風險。中國人民銀行貨幣政策司的調查顯示，中國企業匯率避險方法較匯率改革之前更加多樣，對匯率波動的適應性也有所增強。
二、出口企業的匯率風險
匯率風險，是指經濟實體、個人因外匯匯率波動而導致的以外幣計價的資產或負債的價值發生變化的可能性。匯率風險包括：交易風險、折算風險、經濟風險。
1.交易風險，運用外幣進行計價收付的交易中，經濟主體因外匯匯率的變動而蒙受損失的可能性。交易風險主要發生在：(1)商品勞務進口和出口交易中的風險。(2)資本輸入和輸出的風險。(3)外匯銀行所持有的外匯頭寸的風險。
2.折算風險，又稱會計風險，指經濟主體對資產負債表的會計處理中，將功能貨幣轉換成記賬貨幣時，因匯率變動而導致賬面損失的可能性。這里的功能貨幣指經濟主體與經營活動中流轉使用的各種貨幣，記賬貨幣指在編制綜合財務報表時使用的報告貨幣，通常是本國貨幣。
3.經濟風險，又稱經營風險，指意料之外的匯率變動通過影響企業的生產銷售數量、價格、成本，引起企業未來一定期間收益或現金流量減少的一種潛在損失。
三、人民幣升值條件下的匯率風險分析
本幣升值時，使以出口為主、外幣資產高的行業和依靠價格策略競爭的行業面臨很大的匯率風險。匯率風險正在成為企業的「新成本」。
人民幣升值對進口比重高、外債規模大的行業而言是長期利好，但對出口為主、外幣資產高的行業沖擊較大。絲、紡織服裝、農產品加工等行業，附加值低，利潤本來就薄，最容易受到人民幣升值的影響。資料顯示，人民幣每升值1%，紡織行業銷售利潤率下降2%～6%。
人民幣升值對那些主要依靠價格策略競爭的企業影響是巨大的，如家電行業，但對家電各子行業的影響程度不同，從輕到重依次是空調、照明、手機和彩電子行業；資料顯示，家電企業在簽訂出口訂單時普遍採取閉口合同的形式，短期內對各公司的出口盈利情況存在明顯的負面影響；長期來看，一方面,家電出口企業同國際家電巨頭和經銷商之間的討價還價能力有限，使得每次升值後出口價格的上升幅度達不到人民幣的升幅；另一方面，調價行動總是在人民幣升值以後；所以出口利潤水平將長期受到壓制；另外，人民幣升值將使得以出口為主要市場的中小家電企業的生存環境進一步惡化
四、出口企業應對匯率風險的措施
企業規避匯率風險的關鍵是要選擇合理的避險工具和產品。其中包括與交易對手通過協議方式直接鎖定匯率風險，或者選用銀行的衍生避險工具如遠期結售匯及人民幣掉期業務，使用貿易融資、衍生交易、定期存款等產品。
1.爭取非美元報價和縮短報價有效期鎖定交易風險。國外進口商一般多以美元結算，在人民幣對美元升值的預期環境下，他們也更樂意使用美元支付。但是我們要讓客戶體諒我們的難處，用歐元或日元報價，爭取實現更多客戶接受非美元報價。將以前正常情況下1～3個月報一次價縮短到10天至15天，期滿再根據實際匯率調整價格。此外，簽訂出口合同時，在外貿合同中加註有關條款，規定若遇匯率變動超過一定的幅度，事先約定匯率變動引起損失的分擔比例，使得損失風險雙方共擔。
2.遠期結售匯鎖定會計風險。針對人民幣快速升值的情況，可以運用匯率方面的金融工具管理風險。具體的方法有遠期外匯交易、貨幣期權、匯率期貨等金融工具固定成本或收益來規避匯率風險。企業採取遠期結售匯的方法，企業可以對未來將要發生的外匯收支提前敲定匯價。結售匯業務不需要支付任何手續費，只需要申請企業提供交易金額3％的保證金。只要結匯價格高於預期的升值幅度，那就可以成功規避人民幣升值的風險。
Ⅱ 求關於人民幣匯率變動帶來的影響，外文文獻，要英文原文和中文譯文
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Ⅲ 人民幣匯率對外貿影響的外文文獻（論文用）
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翻譯一般得自己了。
Ⅳ 關於和外匯有關的文章 要中英文都有的，急用 謝謝
企業國際化戰略對財務管理的挑戰與創新2006年12月01日 星期五 下午 03:51——專訪上海國家會計學院副院長謝榮
新理財(以下簡稱「新」)：從TCL2002年收購德國施耐德電器、聯想收購IBM全球PC業務、海爾美國公司和康佳美康公司在美國的設立，到不少企業在香港、紐約等地成功上市，中國部分企業已經在實施「走出去」戰略，您認為中國企業國際化戰略的目標是什麼?
謝榮(以下簡稱「謝」)國際化戰略主要指商品市場和各類生產要素資源配置的國際化。實施國際化戰略的一個主要原因是各國各類資源優勢的不同和企業管理能力的不同，通過各類資源要素和管理能力要素跨國界的配置，使企業的能力得到最充分的發揮，使國際社會獲得更多的財富。在過去20 多年改革實踐中，我國企業的國際化戰略主要體現在引進國外資本、技術和管理經驗促進生產能力的提高和促進市場體系的發展等方面。隨著我國企業生產能力、管理能力的快速發展和增強，企業實施「走出去」的國際化戰略已成為提高企業可持續發展能力的一個重要手段和途徑。
企業實施「走出去」戰略的基本目標是：
(1)通過擴大產品市場，提高企業的生存和發展空間。
利用地方資源優勢、低成本優勢和特定的技術優勢，通過有規模的產品出口來擴大企業的生存和發展空間，常常是企業「走出去」戰略最直接的目標。而實施這種戰略的企業要求必須保持產品的生產優勢。
(2)利用資源的國際配置，提高企業的資本投資回報或生產投資回報。
通過積極走向國際市場和國際范圍內的資源配置來提高資本投資回報或生產投資回報，實現企業的長期可持續發展，通常是企業「走出去」戰略的根本目標。而實施這一戰略的企業常常需要較高的管理能力、規范的企業運作和較熟悉國際市場。
新：想到部分行業近期在國內大打價格戰，以及與國外相比國內商業信用的相對缺失，您認為企業走國際化道路是否與此有關？
謝：企業真正的競爭優勢來源於兩個方面：戰略定位和運營的有效性。部分行業，比較有代表性的是家電行業，由於大部分企業都沒有獨特的戰略定位，僅僅想靠運作的效率來戰勝對手，最後會導致兩敗俱傷。在這種情況下，如果希望依賴國際化來降低價格競爭的程度，實質上很難達到所期望的效果。因此，我認為價格戰是促進國際化的一個因素，但國際化戰略必須與企業本身的戰略定位結合起來。國內商業信用與成熟市場相比相對缺失，這也是一個不爭的事實。實質上，商業信用的缺失與公司缺乏遠景、價值觀，以及由此產生的戰略定位也有直接的關系。一個具有遠景戰略的公司一定會重視價值觀和商業道德。在可能的情況下，也會利用國際市場的機會，促進戰略目標的實現。所以我國商業信用的相對缺失本身不會成為推動國際化發展的主要原因，相反，國際化戰略的發展則會促進我國商業信用的改進。
新：「走出去」成為國際化公司，對不少中國企業而言，是一個踏遍荊棘依然好夢難圓的痛苦歷程。作為財會專家，您認為在企業國際化戰略中財務應發揮什麼樣的作用？
謝：隨著信息技術的發展，財務人員已經從傳統的繁重的核算任務中解脫出來了。根據現代企業的發展，財務人員應該更多地在發展戰略的制定和執行上為企業做出貢獻。現代戰略理論與實務的發展也告訴我們，企業戰略的制定和實施需要整個公司員工的參與，特別是高層財務主管的積極參與。就國際化戰略而言，由於其獨特的復雜性和重要性，財務人員首先應積極參與對國際市場宏觀環境包括國際政治、經濟、社會和技術發展環境等的分析和行業環境分析，以確保戰略決策的制定建立在科學基礎之上，並有效地控制戰略風險對企業財務的影響。其次，財務人員應積極參與國際化戰略的實施，特別是相關業務的發展與國際化融資、投資和財務管理之間的聯系。如果收購作為達成戰略目標的一種手段，則需要財務人員參與收購目標的選擇，對被收購對象的盡職調查，在盡職調查基礎上的估值，與被收購對象的談判，以及籌措財務資源完成收購交易等。
在整個國際化戰略進程中，財務人員需要發揮作用的另一個重要方面就是監督。現代企業管理的發展已經表明監督並不僅僅是對財務資源的監督，它需要財務人員結合企業戰略目標，識別出實現企業目標的關鍵成功要素(Critical Success Factors，CSFs)，從而設計關鍵業績指標(Key Performance Indicators，KPIs)，並對關鍵業績指標實施監控，以確保企業戰略目標的實現。
新：進入國際市場有多種方式可供選擇：可利用中間商，也可以直接向國外出口；可以打出自己的品牌，也可先做OEM；可通過出口方式佔領目標市場，也可採取跨國投資的方式在當地生產。間接出口、直接出口、跨國直接投資，這幾種國外市場進入方式各有利弊。您認為企業應當如何選取適合自己的進入方式？對財務管理有何影響？
謝：企業選擇進入國際市場的方式受許多因素的影響。正如我剛才強調的，企業國際化必須與其本身的遠景戰略相聯系，同時還要與其競爭戰略相聯系。就業務層面的競爭戰略來說，企業需要就具體業務考慮是成本領先、差異化，還是採用集中戰略；就公司層面的戰略來說，企業需要考慮是採用國際本土化、全球化，還是全球化與本土化的結合。
在以上考慮的基礎上，企業需要選擇具體的進入國際市場的方式。最初，產品出口是較好的選擇，因為不需要在國外進行製造專業能力的投入，只需要在分銷上投資。出口、許可協議和戰略聯盟是較好的早期市場的發展方法。
如果要在國際市場上取得更為有利的地位，就需要收購和建立全新的子公司，這一般出現在國際化戰略的後期階段。在有些情況下，各種不同的方式可能被依次使用，從出口到全新子公司；在另一些情況下，在不同的市場使用不同的幾種(但不是全部)進入方式。最終選擇的方式將是行業競爭條件、國家環境、政府法規和本公司獨特的資源、能力和核心競爭力等因素結合的結果。
至於進入方式對財務管理的影響，適合早期階段的進入方式，本質上並沒有對企業運營產生實質上的影響，增加的主要是銷售信用和外匯風險管理。適合後期階段的進入方式對財務的影響是全面的，要求企業以集團財務管理的方法和技術來應對各種風險。
新：不少中國企業已經成功在海外上市，有的實現了國際兼並和收購，這些企業將被「逼」著按照國際通行規則運營和發展，您能否結合公司治理談談這方面的情況？
謝：公司治理的基本特點主要有：(1)強調公司股東，特別是機構投資者和中小投資者，應積極參與公司重大決策，對公司施加影響；(2)強調董事會作為股東的代表應負責公司發展戰略的制定，並監督管理層對戰略的落實；(3)強調董事會的獨立性，董事會應包含較多的獨立董事；(4)強調董事會(特別是董事會下屬的審計委員會)對虛假財務報告的監督。
隨著中國部分企業成功地在海外上市，有的實現了國際兼並和收購，這些企業將按照國際通行規則運營和發展。這就要求這些企業必須重視投資者關系的管理；建立負責、高效的董事會；使董事會在企業發展戰略方面發揮更強的作用；向董事會提供全面、必要的信息，以利於董事會的有效監督；成立全部由獨立董事組成的審計委員會監督虛假財務報告。
中國國際化的企業在形式上達到以上這些要求並不難，但關鍵是在實質上滿足這些要求。最近就發生過我國有些企業聘任的海外獨立董事辭職的事件。這一事件表明：國際投資者要求我國國際化的企業在實質上達到公司治理的「國際化」。在這方面，我們的企業還有很長的路要走。
新：國際化會帶來一系列會計和財務管理方面的問題，各國的文化、記賬幣種、會計准則、財務制度等也都不同，這些都對企業財務提出了新的和更高的要求，您認為財務應如何應對這些變化？
謝：國際化確實帶來了一系列會計和財務管理方面的問題。最主要的是不同貨幣匯率差異和波動帶來的財務風險。同時，由於會計准則和財務制度的不同，也會帶來財務報告編制的難度和風險。
對於匯率風險，要求財務人員加強匯率風險防範知識包括衍生金融工具知識的學習，准確把握匯率風險管理的目標，提高風險的識別、分析和控制能力，並對整個匯率風險管理的有效性提供及時的信息溝通和監督。
對於會計准則和財務制度的不同，要求財務人員必須理解所在地的會計准則和財務制度。目前各個國家和地區的會計准則有向國際會計准則趨同的趨勢，而且很多國家和地區的監管機構和資本市場也認可按照國際會計准則編報的財務報告。因此，國際化不但要求財務人員熟悉所在地的會計准則和財務制度，而且還要掌握國際會計准則，能夠按照國際會計准則編報財務報告。
新：幾年前，中國人著手國際並購幾乎聞所未聞。過去一年間，這一切開始改變 「獵物」成了「獵手」。從2004年12月開始，聯想、海爾、中海油和中石油的一系列交易和競標，標志著中國加入了全球並購浪潮。但中國企業的海外並購戰略面臨一些重大的風險，這些企業又缺少海外運營經驗，這些都是需要考慮的問題。請您就此談談您的看法。
謝：中國企業近幾年積極加入全球並購浪潮是與中國這幾年經濟的持續發展分不開的，但在海外並購戰略方面，中國企業面臨著一些重大的風險，主要包括政治風險、經濟風險和管理風險。
政治風險指一個國家政局是否穩定、法制是否健全、國家發展的基本政策是否正確。由於國際化戰略涉及的投資金額大、影響周期長，為確保投資的安全和有效，必須首先考慮政治風險。
經濟風險主要是指匯率、利率、稅率和資源等方面的風險，匯率、利率等的波動會對投資收益產生重大影響，因而必須隨時跟蹤其變化趨勢、評估其影響程度和制定應對措施。
管理風險是指國際化戰略制定和實施過程中的風險。根據美國科爾尼公司的統計，大約只有20%的並購案實現了預期目標，其餘80% 的並購多以失敗而告終(2006.1.1 經濟觀察報)。管理上的風險要求企業加強戰略和流程的管理，塑造核心競爭力，並且能夠將核心競爭力轉移到其他市場。
新：由於世界各地文化、稅務和貿易制度差異較大，實施國際化戰略的企業很難對其海外子公司的業績進行評估，很顯然企業需要考慮轉移價格的因素和子公司在各地的不同情況，您能談談這方面的情況嗎？
謝：各地制度和文化的差異常常導致海外子公司的發展處於不同的環境之中，而企業對不同地點子公司發展策略的整體考慮和安排又會導致各地子公司的發展不平衡和業績不一致，因而對海外子公司的評估不能用簡單統一的指標予以衡量。有效的評估方法是將子公司的考核評估與企業對其的整體戰略安排結合起來，當設立某一子公司的目的主要是為進入某一市場時，就應以市場份額的大小作為評估主要的指標；當收購兼並某地區一家公司的目的主要是為獲取其有效技術和產品設計開發能力時，就不能簡單地以利潤作為評估指標。由於大型跨國企業集團的戰略是全球一體化的，因而對各地子公司的考核評估必須要與公司的整體戰略相協調。
新：在全球化進程中，市場競爭的焦點是人才的競爭。中國企業的國際化戰略需要相應的高素質人才來支持，您認為中國企業實施「走出去」戰略需要什麼樣的財務管理人員？財務人員應從哪些方面提高素質以適應國際化戰略的需要?
謝：綜上分析，中國企業實施 「走出去」戰略需要的是戰略型、經營型的財務人員，他們必須理解企業的整體戰略，並且積極為制定正確的戰略目標貢獻力量；他們能對公司戰略的有效實施提供積極的支持，為公司經營目標的實現創造有利的條件；他們能對公司目標的實現情況進行有效的評估，以客觀考核各地子公司的經營業績和對公司戰略目標提出調整建議。同時，他們還要明了國際化戰略與公司遠景戰略之間的聯系，能夠進行有效的行業分析、對目標收購公司進行估值，需要熟悉現代風險管理技術，需要理解和運用國際會計准則以及所在地的會計准則等等。
為了滿足這些要求，財務人員應該從以下幾個方面提高素質以滿足國際化的戰略的需要：(1)要過語言關。國際化戰略需要掌握多種綜合技能的財務人員。如果沒有良好的外語水平，將難以了解國際前沿的理論與實務，國際化也就無從談起了。(2)掌握戰略管理的理論與實務。現代財務人員單純理解財務會計已經遠遠不夠了，需要盡快吸收近幾年的蓬勃發展的戰略管理理念和管理實務。(3)掌握全面的風險管理理論與實務。企業傳統的著重於流程的內部控制正在被全面風險管理理念與實務所取代，財務人員只有在理解了全面風險管理的理念與實務的基礎上，才能夠結合本企業的實際，設計和實施關鍵成功要素與關鍵業績指標，並識別、分析和應對本企業所面臨的關鍵風險。(4)掌握現代財務分析方法，特別是對企業價值的評估方法。(5)掌握國內、國際和經營所在國的會計准則，能夠編制符合相關法律法規要求的財務報告。
總之，國際化戰略對財務人員提出了更高層次的挑戰，財務人員必須從各方面更新自己的知識結構和技能才能夠勝任新的角色 (《新理財》 )
International Enterprise strategy for financial management challenges and innovation on December 1, 2006 Friday afternoon 03 : 51 -- interview with the Shanghai National Accounting Institute in Ljubljana, vice president of the new fiscal (hereinafter referred to as "new") : TCL2002 years from the acquisition of German Schneider Electric, Lenovo's purchase of IBM's global PC business. American companies Haier and Konka Kang U.S. companies established in the United States, many enterprises in Hong Kong, New York and other successful listing Some Chinese enterprises have been in the implementation of the "going out" strategy. Do you think the internationalization of Chinese enterprises strategic What is the objective? Ljubljana (hereinafter referred to as "Xie") international strategy mainly refers to commodity markets and various factors of proction allocation of resources on an international scale. Implementation of the international strategy is a major cause of all the resources of all kinds of different strengths and capabilities of enterprise management, through various essential resources and management capacity factor of the cross-border distribution, the ability to enable enterprises to the fullest play, enable the international community to get more of the wealth. In the past 20 years of reform and practice, China's international strategy is mainly reflected in the introction of foreign capital, technology and management experience for the improvement of proctivity and promote the development of the market system, and so on. As China's proction capacity and management capability of rapid development and strengthening, enterprises to implement the "going out" strategy of internationalization has become enhance capacity for sustainable development as an important means and ways. Enterprises to implement the "going out" strategy is the basic objectives : (1) by expanding the proct market, enhancing the survival and development space. Use of local resources, and low-cost advantages and specific technical advantages, adoption of a large scale domestic enterprises to expand exports to the existence and development space, often enterprises "going out" strategy the most direct target. And the implementation of this strategy requires enterprises to maintain the proction advantages. (2) Use of the international allocation of resources, and improving the return on capital investment or proction of investment returns. Through active international market and within the scope of the international allocation of resources to improve return on capital investment or proction of investment returns, realize the long-term sustainable development, usually enterprises "going out" strategy in the fundamental objectives. And the implementation of this strategy in enterprises often requires a higher level of management capacity, and standardized the operation of enterprises and more familiar with the international market. New : think of some instries in the recent domestic feverish price war, in comparison with foreign countries and domestic commercial credit the relative missing, Do you think enterprises take the path of internationalization to do with this? Xie : enterprise real competitive advantage comes from two aspects : strategic positioning and operating effectiveness. Some instries, which are more representative of the home electrical appliance instries, as most enterprises are not unique strategic positioning, just rely on the efficiency to beat his opponent, and will eventually lead to both parties. In such circumstances, if the wish to rely on the international price competition to rece the extent of, in essence, it is very difficult to achieve the desired results. Therefore, I think the price war is the promotion of an international factors, But the international strategy with the corporate strategy of positioning itself together. Domestic commercial credit Compared with the mature markets is relatively scarce, this is an indisputable fact. In essence, the lack of commercial credit and lack of vision, values, and the resulting strategic positioning has a direct relationship. With a strategic vision of the company would be about values and ethics. In the situation, the international market will also use the opportunity to promote the strategic goal. So our commercial credit the relative lack itself is not going to become international in 2001, on the contrary, International strategy will be to promote the development of our commercial credit improvements. New : "going out" to become an international company, and many Chinese enterprises, is a plodding thorns still dreams will not come true history of suffering. As accounting experts, what do you think are the business strategies of the international financial should play what role? Xie : With the development of information technology, financial officers from the traditional heavy task for the accounting of extricating themselves. According to the modern enterprise development, financial officers should be more strategic in the development of the formulation and implementation of enterprise contribution. Modern strategic theory and practice of development also tells us that enterprise strategy formulation and implementation of the entire company staff, particularly in senior financial managers for their active participation. On the international strategy, because of its unique complexity, and importance of, First, financial officers should be actively involved in the international market macroeconomic environment, including international political, economic, social and technological development of environmental analysis and environmental instries, to ensure that the strategic decision to establish the scientific basis and the effective risk control strategies for enterprise financial impact. Secondly, financial officers should be actively involved in the internationalization of the implementation of the strategy, especially related to business development and international financing, investment and financial management of the linkages between them. If the acquisition as a strategic goal of reaching a means, the need for staff to participate in the sale of the financial goals of the choice, to be the targets of acquisition, e diligence, e diligence on the basis of valuation, and were the targets of acquisition talks and raising the financial resources to complete the acquisition transactions. Throughout the strategy of internationalization process, and financial officers need to play a role in another important aspect is supervision. Modern enterprise management has shown the development and supervision of financial resources is not only the right supervision, It needs financial officers in conjunction with enterprise strategic goals, identify target enterprises the key success factors (Critical Success Factors. CSFs), thus the design of key performance indicators (Key Performance Indicators. KPIs), and the implementation of key performance indicators for monitoring to ensure that the corporate strategy objectives. New : to enter the international market in a number of ways are available : the use of brokers may, or may directly to the foreign exports; can establish their own brand, but also to do the OEM; can be occupied by the export target markets, could also take the form of transnational investment in local proction. Indirect export, direct exports, foreign direct investment, access to foreign markets Several methods have their advantages and disadvantages. Do you think the business should be selected for their entry? On the impact of financial management? Xie : Enterprise chose to enter the international market by many factors. As I emphasized earlier, the internationalization of enterprises have their own vision of strategic links while its competitive strategy linked. On the operational level of competition strategy, enterprises need to consider the specific operational cost is a leading difference, or a focused strategy; on the corporate level strategy, enterprises need to consider is using international localization, globalization, globalization and localization of the combination. In the basis of the above considerations, the choice of the specific needs of enterprises to enter the international market of the way. Initially, the procts for export is a better choice, because you do not need to engage in foreign investment in professional capacity, only need to invest in distribution. Export, licensing agreements and strategic alliances is a good early market approach to development. If it is to be achieved on the international market is more favorable position on the need to purchase and the establishment of new subsidiaries, This usually appear in the international strategy in the late stages. In some cases, different means may be used were from the export of new subsidiaries; In some other cases, in different markets using several different (but not all) ways to enter. The final choice is the way of competitive conditions, the National Environment, the government regulations, and the company's unique resources, capability and core competitiveness of the combined factors of the results. As for the right way to enter the financial management, suitable for early stages of the entry way, Basically, there is no operation of enterprises have an actual effect, the increase in sales is mainly credit and foreign exchange risk management. For the late stages of the right way to enter the financial impact is comprehensive, Group requests to the financial management methods and techniques to deal with all kinds of risks. New : many Chi
Ⅳ 關於人民幣匯率變動帶來的影響，外文文獻，要英文原文和中文譯文，2篇，盡快，謝謝
5月25日，第二輪中美戰略與經濟對話在北京閉幕，在這個對話中，人民幣升值預期退後，那麼人民幣升值對中國的經濟有什麼影響呢？
人民幣升值問題確實是一個復雜而現實的問題，是一把雙刃劍。只有審時度勢，把握好利弊，才能有理有力有節地從容應對。
人民幣匯率升值給我國經濟增長造成的負面影響不容忽視。
第一，抑制出口增長，人民幣匯率升值將對我國出口企業特別是勞動密集型企業造成沖擊。第二，將導致外債規模進一步擴大。第三，不利於我國引進境外直接投資。第四，影響金融市場的穩定。第五，巨額外匯儲備將面臨縮水的威脅。第六，增加就業壓力。在當前我國就業形勢極其嚴峻的情況下，人民幣匯率升值將可能惡化就業形勢。
但同時人民幣升值也給我們帶來許多有利的方面。一是人民幣匯率升值，將會降低進口成本，從而使得進口量增加；二是有利於改善吸引外資的環境，人民幣匯率升值，可使已在華投資的外資企業的利潤增加，從而增強投資者的信心，促使其進一步追加投資或進行再投資。三是有利於減輕外債還本付息壓力。
權衡利弊來看、人民幣匯率還是不宜升值
對於目前的國際貨幣體系現狀，《環球財經》總編輯、中國人民大學國際貨幣研究所副所長向松祚先生用三句話概括國際貨幣體系的現狀：美元依然主導、歐元面臨挑戰、人心嚮往多元。
此次由美國次貸危機衍生而來的國際金融危機，暴露了國際貨幣體系的一系列缺陷：
一、現行國際貨幣體系與國際金融合作機制，嚴重滯後於經濟全球化和金融一體化的過程二、國際貨幣體系中缺少信息預警體系；三、對衍生金融工具市場疏於監管；四、IMF鼓勵推行金融自由化與資本市場開放政策，新興市場國家不適當地加速這一進程；五、IMF行動遲緩，提供資金的能力有限，貽誤將金融危機消滅於初期階段的有利時機
目前國際貨幣體系存在諸多的問題，那麼它未來的改革趨勢將是怎麼樣的呢？我們可以從三個視角看未來的國際貨幣體系改革。（一）從國際儲備貨幣視角看未來的國際貨幣體系改革。1.重新修復以美元為主導的國際儲備體系，但是，這種格局並沒有改變此次金融危機中所呈現出來的一系列國際貨幣體系的缺陷。 2.美元逐步失去中心地位，國際儲備貨幣多元化 3.創造一種新的超主權國際儲備貨幣（二）從國際收支不平衡的調整機制看未來國際貨幣體系安排 1.全球儲蓄率結構「再平衡」2.新興市場經濟發展模式「再平衡」（三）從國際資金流動與全球治理看未來國際貨幣體系安排已經高度全球化的金融市場，客觀上需要一個更能夠同時體現發達國家和發展中國家利益、更公平、更合理的治理結構。
Ⅵ 求關於人民幣匯率的外文文獻
可以到OA圖書館查詢到，輸入英文關鍵詞即可。
並可以免費下載。
Ⅶ 英語畢業論文 人民幣匯率和外貿企業的轉型 求相關文獻
Since system reforms China from putting one new wheel RMB into practice on July 21 , 2005 converging, RMB is always in the state appreciating , there is existing many-sided effect in economy to Chinese foreign trade. Active and negative influence the main body of a book has been summarized mainly to our country foreign trade after RMB appreciates, since appreciating as well as Chinese foreign trade current situation. One, exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies appreciates to affect to our country foreign trade active 1. After cost beneficial to entering port lessening RMB appreciates, the import commodity price will pay go down , cost and cost paying in entrance link recing our country import commodity identical extent happened. Our country entrance depends on higher instry of degree having petroleum , gas , iron and steel , aviation , power equipment etc. mainly , RMB appreciates that the entrance cost using a batch of business is reced , the gain situation improving relevance instry then, helps very much to economic development. 2. Turn around beneficial to driving foreign trade to increase way 3. Terms of trade beneficial to improving 4. Estate beneficial to driving a part to utter shifts toward central and western regions 5. Trade beneficial to relieving rubs 6. Beneficial to Chinese enterprise "steps out 2. Be harmful for our country to attract foreign funds 3. Employment pressure enlarges messenger our country 4. Agriculture of our country will be confronted with bigger challenge 5. Bring different effect to different effect each instry Three, since exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies appreciates Chinese foreign trade current situation 1. Behaviour converging to change queen our country foreign trade: Active balance continues expanding 2. Trade of cause our country current situation and the tradition trade theory that active balance expands are the exact opposite , investigating whose cause is the condition there being existing a lot of what other country not have various in our country mainly. Have the following mainly 4 o'clock: (1), that processing trade holds main body position is the root cause that active balance expands (2) Chinese price of labour power is cheap be that the long range keeps the main cause exporting advantage (3), various preferential measure is to promote the key factor uttering (4) export enterprise manage the main body diversification trend is to export the system guarantee continuing increase by Ask questions person: Oh I agile agile- answer 2 together Chinas one step other since RMB putting one new wheel into practice on July 21 , 2005 converges to make reformation, RMB is always in the state appreciating , there is existing many-sided effect in economy to Chinese foreign trade. Active and negative influence the main body of a book has been summarized mainly to our country foreign trade after RMB appreciates, since appreciating as well as Chinese foreign trade current situation. One, exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies appreciates to affect to our country foreign trade active 1. Will may identical extent go down happened in the import commodity price after cost beneficial to entering port lessening RMB appreciates,cost and cost paying in entrance link recing our country import commodity. Our country entrance depends on higher instry of degree having petroleum , gas , iron and steel , aviation , power equipment etc. mainly , RMB appreciates that the entrance cost using a batch of business is reced , the gain situation improving relevance instry then, helps very much to economic development. 2. Turn around beneficial to driving foreign trade to increase way 3. Terms of trade beneficial to improving 4. Estate beneficial to driving a part to utter shifts toward central and western regions 5. Trade beneficial to relieving rubs 6. Beneficial to Chinese enterprise "steps out 2. Be harmful for our country to attract foreign funds 3. Employment pressure enlarges messenger our country 4. Agriculture of our country will be confronted with bigger challenge 5. Bring different effect to different effect each instry Three, since exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies appreciates Chinese foreign trade current situation 1. Behaviour converging to change queen our country foreign trade: Active balance continues expanding 2. Trade of cause our country current situation and the tradition trade theory that active balance expands are the exact opposite , investigating whose cause is the condition there being existing a lot of what other country not have various in our country mainly. Have the following mainly 4 o'clock: (1), that processing trade holds main body position is that the root cause (2) Chinese price of labour power that active balance expands is cheap is that the long range keeps the main cause exporting advantage (3), various preferential measure is to promote the key factor uttering (4) export enterprise manage the main body diversification trend is to export the system guarantee continuing increase by
Ⅷ 匯率方面的英文參考文獻 最少來3個 謝謝 ！~！！！
Exchange rate
In finance, the exchange rates (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. For example an exchange rate of 102 Japanese yen (JPY, ¥) to the United States dollar (USD, $) means that JPY 102 is worth the same as USD 1. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day.
The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.
Quotations
An exchange rate quotation is given by stating the number of units of "term currency" or "price currency" that can be bought in terms of 1 unit currency (also called base currency). For example, in a quotation that says the EURUSD exchange rate is 1.3 (1.3 USD per EUR), the term currency is USD and the base currency is EUR.
There is a market convention that determines which is the base currency and which is the term currency. In most parts of the world, the order is:
EUR - GBP - AUD - USD - *** (where *** is any other currency).
Thus if you are doing a conversion from EUR into AUD, EUR is the base currency, AUD is the term currency and the exchange rate tells you how many Australian dollars you would pay or receive for 1 euro. Cyprus and Malta which were quoted as the base to the USD and *** were recently removed from this list when they joined the euro. In some areas of Europe and in the non-professional market in the UK, EUR and GBP are reversed so that GBP is quoted as the base currency to the euro. In order to determine which is the base currency where both currencies are not listed (i.e. both are ***), market convention is to use the base currency which gives an exchange rate greater than 1.000. This avoids rounding issues and exchange rates being quoted to more than 4 decimal places. There are some exceptions to this rule e.g. the Japanese often quote their currency as the base to other currencies.
Quotes using a country's home currency as the price currency (e.g., EUR 1.00 = $1.45 in the US) are known as direct quotation or price quotation (from that country's perspective) ([1]) and are used by most countries.
Quotes using a country's home currency as the unit currency (e.g., £0.4762 = $1.00 in the US) are known as indirect quotation or quantity quotation and are used in British newspapers and are also common in Australia, New Zealand and the eurozone.
direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units
indirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units
Note that, using direct quotation, if the home currency is strengthening (i.e., appreciating, or becoming more valuable) then the exchange rate number decreases. Conversely if the foreign currency is strengthening, the exchange rate number increases and the home currency is depreciating.
When looking at a currency pair such as EURUSD, the first component (EUR in this case) will be called the base currency. The second is called the term currency. For example : EURUSD = 1.33866, means EUR is the base and USD the term, so 1 EUR = 1.33866 USD.
Currency pairs are often incorrectly quoted with a "/" (forward slash). In fact if the slash is inserted, the order of the currencies should be reversed. This gives the exchange rate. e.g. if EUR1 is worth USD1.35, euro is the base currency and dollar is the term currency so the exchange rate is stated EURUSD or USD/EUR. To get the exchange rate divide the USD amount by the euro amount e.g. 1.35/1.00 = 1.35
Market convention from the early 1980s to 2006 was that most currency pairs were quoted to 4 decimal places for spot transactions and up to 6 decimal places for forward outrights or swaps. (The fourth decimal place is usually referred to as a "pip.") An exception to this was exchange rates with a value of less than 1.000 which were usually quoted to 5 or 6 decimal places. Although there is no fixed rule, exchange rates with a value greater than around 20 were usually quoted to 3 decimal places and currencies with a value greater than 80 were quoted to 2 decimal places. Currencies over 5000 were usually quoted with no decimal places (e.g. the former Turkish Lira). e.g. (GBPOMR : 0.765432 - EURUSD : 1.3386 - GBPBEF : 58.234 - EURJPY : 165.29). In other words, quotes are given with 5 digits. Where rates are below 1, quotes frequently include 5 decimal places.
In 2006 Barclays Capital broke with convention by offering spot exchange rates with 5 or 6 decimal places. The contraction of spreads (the difference between the bid and offer rates) arguably necessitated finer pricing and gave the banks the ability to try and win transaction on multibank trading platforms where all banks may otherwise have been quoting the same price. A number of other banks have now followed this.
Free or pegged
Main article: Exchange rate regime
If a currency is free-floating, its exchange rate is allowed to vary against that of other currencies and is determined by the market forces of supply and demand. Exchange rates for such currencies are likely to change almost constantly as quoted on financial markets, mainly by banks, around the world. A movable or adjustable peg system is a system of fixed exchange rates, but with a provision for the devaluation of a currency. For example, between 1994 and 2005, the Chinese yuan renminbi (RMB) was pegged to the United States dollar at RMB 8.2768 to $1. China was not the only country to do this; from the end of World War II until 1966, Western European countries all maintained fixed exchange rates with the US dollar based on the Bretton Woods system. [2]
Nominal and real exchange rates
The nominal exchange rate e is the price in domestic currency of one unit of a foreign currency.
The real exchange rate (RER) is defined as , where P is the domestic price level and P * the foreign price level. P and P * must have the same arbitrary value in some chosen base year. Hence in the base year, RER = e.
The RER is only a theoretical ideal. In practice, there are many foreign currencies and price level values to take into consideration. Correspondingly, the model calculations become increasingly more complex. Furthermore, the model is based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which implies a constant RER. The empirical determination of a constant RER value could never be realised, e to limitations on data collection. PPP would imply that the RER is the rate at which an organization can trade goods and services of one economy (e.g. country) for those of another. For example, if the price of a good increases 10% in the UK, and the Japanese currency simultaneously appreciates 10% against the UK currency, then the price of the good remains constant for someone in Japan. The people in the UK, however, would still have to deal with the 10% increase in domestic prices. It is also worth mentioning that government-enacted tariffs can affect the actual rate of exchange, helping to rece price pressures. PPP appears to hold only in the long term (3–5 years) when prices eventually correct towards parity.
More recent approaches in modelling the RER employ a set of macroeconomic variables, such as relative proctivity and the real interest rate differential.
Bilateral vs effective exchange rate
Bilateral exchange rate involves a currency pair, while effective exchange rate is weighted average of a basket of foreign currencies, and it can be viewed as an overall measure of the country's external competitiveness. A nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is weighted with trade weights. a real effective exchange rate (REER) adjust NEER by appropriate foreign price level and deflates by the home country price level. Compared to NEER, a GDP weighted effective exchange rate might be more appropriate considering the global investment phenomenon.
Uncovered interest rate parity
See also: Interest rate parity#Uncovered interest rate parity
Uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) states that an appreciation or depreciation of one currency against another currency might be neutralized by a change in the interest rate differential. If US interest rates exceed Japanese interest rates then the US dollar should depreciate against the Japanese yen by an amount that prevents arbitrage. The future exchange rate is reflected into the forward exchange rate stated today. In our example, the forward exchange rate of the dollar is said to be at a discount because it buys fewer Japanese yen in the forward rate than it does in the spot rate. The yen is said to be at a premium.
UIRP showed no proof of working after 1990s. Contrary to the theory, currencies with high interest rates characteristically appreciated rather than depreciated on the reward of the containment of inflation and a higher-yielding currency.
Balance of payments model
This model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level - the rate which proces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience rection in its foreign exchange reserves which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation's goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium.
Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model.
Asset market model
See also: Capital asset pricing model
The explosion in trading of financial assets (stocks and bonds) has reshaped the way analysts and traders look at currencies. Economic variables such as economic growth, inflation and proctivity are no longer the only drivers of currency movements. The proportion of foreign exchange transactions stemming from cross border-trading of financial assets has dwarfed the extent of currency transactions generated from trading in goods and services.
The asset market approach views currencies as asset prices traded in an efficient financial market. Consequently, currencies are increasingly demonstrating a strong correlation with other markets, particularly equities.
Like the stock exchange, money can be made or lost on the foreign exchange market by investors and speculators buying and selling at the right times. Currencies can be traded at spot and foreign exchange options markets. The spot market represents current exchange rates, whereas options are derivatives of exchange rates.
Fluctuations in exchange rates
A market based exchange rate will change whenever the values of either of the two component currencies change. A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply (this does not mean people no longer want money, it just means they prefer holding their wealth in some other form, possibly another currency).
Increased demand for a currency is e to either an increased transaction demand for money, or an increased speculative demand for money. The transaction demand for money is highly correlated to the country's level of business activity, gross domestic proct (GDP), and employment levels. The more people there are unemployed, the less the public as a whole will spend on goods and services. Central banks typically have little difficulty adjusting the available money supply to accommodate changes in the demand for money e to business transactions.
The speculative demand for money is much harder for a central bank to accommodate but they try to do this by adjusting interest rates. An investor may choose to buy a currency if the return (that is the interest rate) is high enough. The higher a country's interest rates, the greater the demand for that currency. It has been argued that currency speculation can undermine real economic growth, in particular since large currency speculators may deliberately create downward pressure on a currency in order to force that central bank to sell their currency to keep it stable (once this happens, the speculator can buy the currency back from the bank at a lower price, close out their position, and thereby take a profit).
In choosing what type of asset to is officially pegged, synthetic markets have emerged that can behave as if the yuan were floating).
匯率
在經濟學上，匯率定義為兩國貨幣之間兌換的比例。通常會將某一國的貨幣設為基準，以此換算金額價值他國幾元的貨幣。在英文使用方面，有時簡寫為FX，此為外國貨幣Foreign Exchange的簡寫。
通俗的說，是一國貨幣單位兌換他國貨幣單位的比率，也可以說是用一國貨幣表示的另一國貨幣的價格。
匯率的特性在於它多半是浮動的比率。只要貨幣能夠透過匯率自由交換，依交換量的多寡，就會影響隔天的匯率，因此，有人也以賺匯差營利，今日以較低的比率購進某一外幣，隔日等到較高的比率出現時，再轉手賣出。
所以有時匯率也能看出一個國家的經濟狀況。了解外匯也能看出這個國家的出口貿易狀況。
交叉匯率
所謂交叉匯率是指兩種不同貨幣之間的價格關系，兩個國家之間的貨幣匯兌是利用各自對美元的匯率套算得出。
舉例來看，若一美元可分別兌換0.8112歐元、109.28日圓，則歐元兌日圓的交叉匯率為134.71（= 109.28/0.8112）。
Ⅸ 需要一篇外國經濟學家關於匯率的文章的英語原文！！！
Treasury Loosens Pressure on China Over Exchange Rate
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Treasury Secretary John W. Snow, who has been pressuring China for two months to permit its currency to float more freely against the dollar, adopted a conciliatory tone on Thursday, saying neither China nor any other country was manipulating its exchange rate.
In a long-awaited report delivered to the Senate Banking Committee, Mr. Snow pleaded for a continuation of ''financial diplomacy'' and rebuffed lawmakers in both parties who want to impose retaliatory tariffs on China if it refuses to let its currency rise in value against the dollar.
''I think we've really got their attention,'' Mr. Snow said. ''I think the financial diplomacy here of the sort that we are engaged in is the surest course to get the result we want.''
But Republican and Democratic senators complained that the Bush administration had painted too rosy a picture. They said China and other Asian countries had intervened heavily in financial markets to keep their currencies cheap and give their procts an unfair trade advantage.
China's exchange rates have become an explosive political issue in the last year. American manufacturers have angrily complained that the Chinese yuan is artificially undervalued by about 40 percent, giving Chinese exports to the United States an unfair trade advantage over American procts.
A cheaper currency makes a nation's procts less expensive in other countries. China has kept the value of the yuan locked at a fixed exchange rate to the dollar since 1994.
Chinese imports, like clothing, toys and consumer electronics, have been flooding into the United States for several years. Last year, America's trade deficit with China reached $105 billion -- bigger than the trade deficit with Japan or the European Union.
Administration officials have been openly alarmed about the political consequences of that deficit.
American manufacturing companies have cut more than two million jobs in the last three years, and many companies have either started buying procts from Chinese procers or begun moving their factories to China.
Mr. Snow began turning up the heat on China and other Asian countries in September. With support from European leaders, Mr. Snow persuaded the Group of 7 instrialized countries to explicitly endorse more flexible exchange rates -- a direct signal to China as well as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea.
Other administration officials have stepped up criticism of China's trade practices. Commerce Secretary Donald L. Evans, on a trip to China this week, bluntly warned that leaders in Beijing were moving ''far too slowly'' toward an open market economy.
''Our patience is wearing thin,'' Mr. Evans said.
But Treasury officials do not want to force China into an overnight shift in policy, worrying that such a move could hurt American companies that import low-cost Chinese goods and could also wreak havoc with China's troubled banking system.
The upshot has been an often contradictory approach in which officials berate China on one day and then try gentle persuasion the next.
In its report on Thursday, the Treasury Department acknowledged that China maintains a fixed exchange rate, and it said China should move as quickly as possible to base its exchange rates more on the market. But it said that neither China nor any other countries were technically manipulating their currencies.
''A currency peg or intervention does not in and of itself satisfy the statutory test'' for constituting ''manipulation,'' the report said.
That conclusion, though not unexpected, received a frosty reception from both Republicans and Democrats. Senator Paul S. Sarbanes, Democrat of Maryland, displayed charts showing that China alone had bought $111 billion in foreign reserves in the last year, a move that many economists say was intended to keep the value of its currency from rising.
Senator Elizabeth Dole, Republican of North Carolina, said she was ''disappointed that this Treasury report fails to acknowledge the seriousness of the problem.''
Senator Dole is among several lawmakers pushing for legislation that would impose stiff tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States that would be comparable to the amount that its currency was deemed to be artificially undervalued.
Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, asserted that the Treasury Department's report was a whitewash that failed to acknowledge China's well-documented efforts to keep its exchange rate from rising.
''It treats China with kid gloves when it should be taking the gloves off,'' Mr. Schumer said.